2024 economic outlook: Madani govt urged to execute reforms, economy forecast to grow 4.5%, says Lee Heng Guie

Economist says there will be no more ‘honeymoon’ for the government next year

Socio-Economist Research Centre executive director and economist Lee Heng Guie admits Madani government will like not deliver all its reforms, but he emphasised the need for them to work towards a ‘future-proof’ Malaysia before the next general election. – Alif Omar/Scoop pic, December 7, 2023

PETALING JAYA – The government has been urged to implement promised reforms and policies in 2024, if it wants to anchor better economic prospects over the medium-term, said Socio-Economist Research Centre executive director and economist Lee Heng Guie.

Speaking at the Real Estate and Housing Developers Association Malaysia’s (Rehda) annual CEO Series 2023 (Economy & Business Forum) today, Lee described 2023 as a year of transition and policy-setting with the introduction of the Madani Economy Framework, New Industrial Master Plan (NIMP) 2030, National Energy Transition Roadmap (NETR) and 12th Malaysia Plan (2021-2025) mid-term review. 

“(The unity government) is going to have a three-day celebration to mark their first year milestone.

“Next year, no more honeymoon. The next step will be for stakeholders to track the (Madani government)’s delivery of their policy reforms,” he told over 400 delegates during his presentation at the Le Meridien Hotel here. 

While Lee admitted that the government is not expected to deliver 100% of their reforms, but he emphasised the need for them to work towards a “future-proof” Malaysia prior to the next general election, which will take place by 2027.

Despite highlighting key risks such as US-China’s economic outlook, Lee predicted that the Malaysian economy will expand by 4.5% in 2024.

Lee also pointed out that Malaysians are set to endure a “painful adjustment” despite being introduced to them in a gradual manner.

“It will be gradual and sequential so that the government can manage the impact on the businesses and consumers.”

His comments reference the government’s plans to review price controls and subsidies in 2024, which will affect inflation and demand conditions. 

Moody’s Analytics’ economist Denise Cheok cites recovery of tourism sector and weakness in China’s economy as reasons for economic uncertainty going into 2024. – Alif Omar/Scoop pic, December 7, 2023

Meanwhile, speaking at the same event, Moody’s Analytics’ economist Denise Cheok said Asean countries including Malaysia are currently experiencing an expansion period under the global economic cycle for November, which will carry into next year.

“The global electronic sector is experiencing a turn-around which is positive for Malaysia being a hub for semiconductor production.  

“Going into 2024, global conditions remain uncertain. Among the risks include the recovery of the tourism sector and present weakness in China’s economy, both of which Malaysia is heavily dependent on,” she added.

She also forecast that Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) will continue to keep its key interest rate unchanged at 3.0% throughout the year given that policy rates globally have peaked recently. – December 7, 2023